hyporational comments on Welcome to Less Wrong! (8th thread, July 2015) - Less Wrong

13 Post author: Sarunas 22 July 2015 04:49PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (239)

Sort By: Leading

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: hyporational 14 September 2015 04:39:41PM 5 points [-]

We were taught bayes in the form of predictive values, but this was pretty cursory. Challenging the medical professors' competence publicly isn't a smart move careerwise, unless they happen to be exceptionally rational and principled, unfortunately. There's a time to shut up and multiply, and a time to bend to the will of the elders :)

Comment author: Lumifer 14 September 2015 04:47:01PM 7 points [-]

Challenging the medical professors' competence publicly isn't a smart move careerwise

Reminds me of:

One day when I was a junior medical student, a very important Boston surgeon visited the school and delivered a great treatise on a large number of patients who had undergone successful operations for vascular reconstruction.

At the end of the lecture, a young student at the back of the room timidly asked, “Do you have any controls?” Well, the great surgeon drew himself up to his full height, hit the desk, and said, “Do you mean did I not operate on half the patients?” The hall grew very quiet then. The voice at the back of the room very hesitantly replied, “Yes, that’s what I had in mind.” Then the visitor’s fist really came down as he thundered, “Of course not. That would have doomed half of them to their death.

”God, it was quiet then, and one could scarcely hear the small voice ask, “Which half?”

Comment author: BiasedBayes 14 September 2015 05:36:35PM 2 points [-]

Yep :) You are definetely right career wise. Problem for me was the 200 other people who will absorb completely wrong idea of how the mind works if I wont say anything. Primum non nocere.

But yeah, this was 4 years ago anyway...just wanted to mention it as an anecdote of bad general reasoning and biases :)