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gjm comments on Welcome to Less Wrong! (8th thread, July 2015) - Less Wrong
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Fairly typically fundamentalist, I believe in young earth creationism with a roughly estimated confidence level of 70%, a large fraction of the human race destined for eternal torment at about 85% and verbal plenary inspiration at about 90%.
I'm a little more theologically engaged then average but (as is typical in my circles) that mean's I'm more theologically conservative, not less.
Are those figures derived from any sort of numerical evidence-weighing process, or are they quantifications of gut feelings? (I do not intend either of those as a value judgement. Different kinds of probability estimate are appropriate on different occasions.)
These are more gut feelings, I had already considered a lot of evidence for and against these before I found out about Bayesian updating, so the bottom line was really already written. If I tried to do a numerically rigorous calculation now, I would just end up double counting evidence. This is just a 'if I had to make a hundred statements of this type that I was this confident about, how often would I be right guess.
Much though this amuses atheist-curmudgeon me, may I suggest that you might want to fix the typo?
Oops, thnks