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Lumifer comments on Welcome to Less Wrong! (8th thread, July 2015) - Less Wrong
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I'm talking about the economy as a whole, it has a wider meaning and includes not only the financial market but as well as a variety of industry.
So what kind of metrics are you interested in forecasting? Macroeconomic ones (GDP, inflation, etc.)? Industry-specific things? Interest rates?
We use mathematical models. It does't matter that data use. The issue is that it will give. In any case, interest is the machine that predict the future, wider than those statistical model that people used in the financial markets. I will write an article about my thoughts. If karma will be great.
Your mathematical models are supposed to reflect real-life features of the data. All data is not the same and the same models are not appropriate for all data.