the brain is already near optimal in terms of what can be done for 10 watts with any irreversible computer (this is relatively easy to show from wiring energy analysis).
Do you have a citation for this? My understanding is that biological neural networks operate far from the Landauer Limit (sorry I couldn't find a better citation but this seems to be a common understanding), whereas we already have proposals for hardware that is near that limit.
I should probably rephrase the brain optimality argument, as it isn't just about energy per se. The brain is on the pareto efficiency surface - it is optimal with respect to some complex tradeoffs between area/volume, energy, and speed/latency.
Energy is pretty dominant, so it's much closer to those limits than the rest. The typical futurist understanding about the Landauer limit is not even wrong - way off, as I point out in my earlier reply below and related links.
A consequence of the brain being near optimal for energy of computation for intelligence g...
At some point soon, I'm going to attempt to steelman the position of those who reject the AI risk thesis, to see if it can be made solid. Here, I'm just asking if people can link to the most convincing arguments they've found against AI risk.
EDIT: Thanks for all the contribution! Keep them coming...