What about just replacing the copper wire inside a conventional CMOS chip with a superductor?
That is the type of tech I was referring to by superconducting circuits as precursor to full reversible. From what I understand, if you chill everything down then you also change resistance in the semiconductor along with all the other properties, so it probably isn't as easy as just replacing the copper wires.
A room temperature superconductor circuit breakthrough is one of the main wild cards over the next decade or so. Cryogenic cooling is pretty impractical for mainstream computing.
So it looks like there's no fundamental reason why it couldn't be done, just a matter of finding the right substrate material and solving other engineering problems.
Yeah, its just a question of timetables. If it's decades away, we have a longer period of stalled moore's law during which AGI will slowly surpass the brain, rather than rapidly.
From what I understand, if you chill everything down then you also change resistance in the semiconductor along with all the other properties, so it probably isn't as easy as just replacing the copper wires.
From the sources I've read, there aren't any major issues running CMOS at 77 K, you only run into problems at lower temperatures, less than 40 K. I guess people aren't seriously trying this because it's probably not much harder to go directly to full superconducting computers (i.e., with logic gates made out of superconductors as well) which offers a...
At some point soon, I'm going to attempt to steelman the position of those who reject the AI risk thesis, to see if it can be made solid. Here, I'm just asking if people can link to the most convincing arguments they've found against AI risk.
EDIT: Thanks for all the contribution! Keep them coming...