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JulianMorrison comments on Rational vs. Scientific Ev-Psych - Less Wrong
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I think the heuristic people are using is not affect, but rather "blowing smoke" versus "a hypothesis specified in enough detail to test". They are drawing evidence from the implied detail, because it's harder to invent a detailed false theory without stumbling across an obvious counterfactual.
Most urban legends have lots and lots of detail, and many futurists add lots off specifics to their visions of the future, which make them seem more plausible. This has been elaborated on before.
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