anonymous12 comments on Rational vs. Scientific Ev-Psych - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 04 January 2008 07:01AM

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Comment author: anonymous12 04 January 2008 02:53:19PM 0 points [-]

The relationship between "expected evidence" and hindsight bias ought to be carefully considered. Since the set of plausible "just-so" explanations is effectively infinite, it's quite difficult to anticipate them in a formal decision model and assess their probability. You are focusing on a tiny fraction of explanations for which we can come up with testable evidence: this is not a convincing argument.