ah I see.

ok, combinations. For each 1 to 5 I'm assuming mutually exclusive because I don't want to mess around with too many scenarios.

For AI risk I'm assuming a paper clipper as a reasonable example of a doomsday AI scenario.

1-high : We'd expect nothing visible.

1-low : We'd expect nothing visible.

2-high : This comes down to "how impossible?" impossible for squishy meatbags or impossible for an AI with a primary goal that implies spreading. We'd still expect to see something weird as entire solar systems are engineered.

2-low :We'd expect nothing visible.

3-high :We'd expect nothing visible.

3-low :We'd expect nothing visible.

4-high : Implies something much more immediately deadly than AI risk which we should be devoting our resources to avoiding.

4-low : We'd expect nothing visible.

5-high : We'd still expect to see the universe being converted into paperclips by someone who screwed up.

5-low : We'd expect nothing visible.

Ok so fair point made, there's a couple more options implied.

a:early filter,

b:low AI risk,

c:wizards already in charge who enforce low AI risk.

d:AI risk being far less important than some other really horrible soon to come risk.