ah I see.
ok, combinations. For each 1 to 5 I'm assuming mutually exclusive because I don't want to mess around with too many scenarios.
For AI risk I'm assuming a paper clipper as a reasonable example of a doomsday AI scenario.
1-high : We'd expect nothing visible.
1-low : We'd expect nothing visible.
2-high : This comes down to "how impossible?" impossible for squishy meatbags or impossible for an AI with a primary goal that implies spreading. We'd still expect to see something weird as entire solar systems are engineered.
2-low :We'd expect nothing visible.
3-high :We'd expect nothing visible.
3-low :We'd expect nothing visible.
4-high : Implies something much more immediately deadly than AI risk which we should be devoting our resources to avoiding.
4-low : We'd expect nothing visible.
5-high : We'd still expect to see the universe being converted into paperclips by someone who screwed up.
5-low : We'd expect nothing visible.
Ok so fair point made, there's a couple more options implied.
a:early filter,
b:low AI risk,
c:wizards already in charge who enforce low AI risk.
d:AI risk being far less important than some other really horrible soon to come risk.
This is the first in a series of posts I am putting together on a personal blog I just started two days ago as a collection of my musings on astrobiology ("The Great A'Tuin" - sorry, I couldn't help it), and will be reposting here. Much has been written here about the Fermi paradox and the 'great filter'. It seems to me that going back to a somewhat more basic level of astronomy and astrobiology is extremely informative to these questions, and so this is what I will be doing. The bloggery is intended for a slightly more general audience than this site (hence much of the content of the introduction) but I think it will be of interest. Many of the points I will be making are ones I have touched on in previous comments here, but hope to explore in more detail.
This post references my first two posts - an introduction, and a discussion of our apparent position in space and time in the universe. The blog posts may be found at:
http://thegreatatuin.blogspot.com/2015/07/whats-all-this-about.html
http://thegreatatuin.blogspot.com/2015/07/space-and-time.htm