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sixes_and_sevens comments on Open Thread, Jul. 27 - Aug 02, 2015 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: MrMind 27 July 2015 07:16AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 27 July 2015 02:42:56PM *  6 points [-]

There's been far less writings on improving rationality here on LW during the last few years. Has everything important been said about the subject, or have you just given up on trying to improve your rationality? Are there diminishing returns on improving rationality? Is it related to the fact that it's very hard to get rid off most of cognitive bias, no matter how hard you try to focus on them? Or have people moved talking about these on different forums, or in real life?

Or like Yvain said on 2014 Survey results.

It looks to me like everyone was horrendously underconfident on all the easy questions, and horrendously overconfident on all the hard questions. To give an example of how horrendous, people who were 50% sure of their answers to question 10 got it right only 13% of the time; people who were 100% sure only got it right 44% of the time. Obviously those numbers should be 50% and 100% respectively.

This builds upon results from previous surveys in which your calibration was also horrible. This is not a human universal - people who put even a small amount of training into calibration can become very well calibrated very quickly. This is a sign that most Less Wrongers continue to neglect the very basics of rationality and are incapable of judging how much evidence they have on a given issue. Veterans of the site do no better than newbies on this measure.

Comment author: sixes_and_sevens 27 July 2015 03:31:07PM 15 points [-]

LW's strongest, most dedicated writers all seem to have moved on to other projects or venues, as has the better part of its commentariat.

In some ways, this is a good thing. There is now, for example, a wider rationalist blogosphere, including interesting people who were previously put off by idiosyncrasies of Less Wrong. In other ways, it's less good; LW is no longer a focal point for this sort of material. I'm not sure if such a focal point exists any more.

Comment author: Baughn 28 July 2015 08:00:05AM *  4 points [-]

Where, exactly? All I've noticed is that there's less interesting material to read, and I don't know where to go for more.

Okay, SSC. That's about it.

Comment author: Vaniver 28 July 2015 07:18:52PM *  3 points [-]

Here's one discussion. One thing that came out of it is the RationalistDiaspora subreddit.

Comment author: Username 07 August 2015 12:39:51PM 1 point [-]

Agentfoundations.org

Comment author: Lumifer 27 July 2015 04:17:50PM 2 points [-]

LW as an incubator?

Comment author: sixes_and_sevens 27 July 2015 04:34:23PM 0 points [-]

Or a host for a beautiful parasitic wasp?

Comment author: Lumifer 27 July 2015 04:46:59PM 3 points [-]

Toxoplasmosis is a better metaphor if you want to go that way :-D