ksvanhorn comments on The Dice Room, Human Extinction, and Consistency of Bayesian Probability Theory - Less Wrong

2 Post author: ksvanhorn 28 July 2015 04:27PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (14)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: ksvanhorn 29 July 2015 06:32:39PM 0 points [-]

Note that

P(you are in batch t | murders batch t & you are kidnapped)

cannot be 9/10 for all t; in fact, this probability must go to 0 in the limit as t -> infinity, regardless of what prior you use.