ike comments on The Dice Room, Human Extinction, and Consistency of Bayesian Probability Theory - Less Wrong

2 Post author: ksvanhorn 28 July 2015 04:27PM

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Comment author: ike 30 July 2015 11:46:54AM 1 point [-]

When he says that it's a problem to have two different probabilities from the same situation, he doesn't realize that it's a problem for Bayesian only if the two calculations starts from the same prior information.

It's kind of impossible to prove theorems about when Bayesians should agree without knowing that.

And I don't see the problem with the sentence you quoted, unless you claim that each way encodes different priors (and even so, that would be an answer to the problem, not a reason to say the problem doesn't deserve a response).