potato comments on Does Probability Theory Require Deductive or Merely Boolean Omniscience? - Less Wrong

4 Post author: potato 03 August 2015 06:54AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (10)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Wei_Dai 03 August 2015 09:36:11PM 3 points [-]

Sure, we might need an oracle to figure out if a given program outputs anything at all, but we would not need to assign a probability of 1 to Fermat's last theorem (or at least I can't figure out why we would).

Fermat's Last Theorem states that no three positive integers a, b, and c can satisfy the equation a^n + b^n = c^n for any integer value of n greater than two. Consider a program that iterates over all possible values of a, b, c, n looking for counterexamples for FLT, then if it finds one, calls a subroutine that eventually prints out X (where X is your current observation). In order to do Solomonoff induction, you need to query a halting oracle on this program. But knowing whether this program halts or not is equivalent to knowing whether FLT is true or false.

Comment author: potato 03 August 2015 11:50:44PM *  0 points [-]

Let's forget about the oracle. What about the program that outputs X only if 1 + 1 = 2, and else prints 0? Let's call it A(1,1). The formalism requires that P(X|A(1,1)) = 1, and it requires that P(A(1,1)) = 2 ^-K(A(1,1,)), but does it need to know that "1 + 1 = 2" is somehow proven by A(1,1) printing X?

In either case, you've shown me something that I explicitly doubted before: one can prove any provable theorem if they have access to a Solomonoff agent's distribution, and they know how to make a program that prints X iff theorem S is provable. All they have to do is check the probability the agent assigns to X conditional on that program.