MugaSofer comments on The Fallacy of Gray - Less Wrong
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Unreliable evidence, biased estimates etc. can, in fact, be taken into account.
This.
Throwing your hands in the air and saying "well we can never know for sure" is not as accurate as giving probabilities of various results. We can never know for sure which answer is right, but we can assign our probabilities so that, on average, we are always as confident as we should be. Of course, humans are ill-suited to this task, having a variety of suboptimal heuristics and downright biases, but they're all we have. And we can, in fact, assign the correct probabilities / choose the correct choice when we have the problem reduced to a mathematical model and apply the math without making mistakes.
Oh, I'm not going to downvote your comments or anything. I just thought you might prefer your comments to be easier to read and avoid signalling ... well, disrespect, ignorance, crazy-ranting-on-the-internet-ness, and all the other low status and undesirable signals given off. Of course, I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt, but people are simply less likely to do so when you give off signals like that. This isn't necessarily irrational, since these signals are, indeed, correlated with trolls and idiots. Not perfectly, but enough to be worth avoiding (IMHO.)
If all you're looking for is confidence, why must you assign probabilities? I'm pushing you in hopes of understanding, not necessarily disagreeing. If I'm very religious and use that as my life-guide, I could be extremely confident in a given answer. In other words, the value of using probabilities must extend beyond confidence in my own answer -- confidence is just a personal feeling. Being "right" in a normative sense is also relevant, but as you point out, we often don't actually know what answer is correct. If your point instead is that probabilities will result in the right answer more often then not, fine, then accurately identifying the proper inputs and valuing them correctly is of utmost importance -- this is simply not practical in many situations precisely because the world is so complex. I guess it boils down to this -- what is the value of being "right" if what is "right" cannot be determined? I think there are decisions where what is right can be determined -- and rationality and the bayesian model works quite well. I think far more decisions (social relationships, politics, economics -- particularly decisions that do not directly affect the decision maker) are too subjective to know what is "right" or accurately model inputs. In those cases, I think rationality falls short, and the attempt to assign probabilities can give false confidence that the derived answer has a greater value than simply providing confidence that it is the best one.
I think I'm the only one on LessWrong that finds EY's writing maddening -- mostly the style -- I keep screaming to myself, "get to the point!" -- as noted, perhaps its just me. His examples from the cited article miss the point of perspectivism I think. Perspectivism (or at least how I am using it) simply means that truth can be relative, not that it is relative in all cases. Rationality does not seem to account for the possibility that it could be relative in any case.
Indeed. One of the purposes of this site is to help people become more rational - closer to a mathematical perfect reasoner - in everyday life. In math problems, however - and every real problem can, eventually, be reduced to a math problem - we can always make the right choice (unless we make a mistake with the math, which does happen.)
Unfortunately for you, most of the basic introductory-level stuff - and much of the really good stuff generally - is by him. So I'm guessing there's a certain selection effect for people who enjoy/tolerate his style of writing.
I'm still not sure how truth could be "relative" - could you perhaps expand on what you mean by that? - although obviously it can be obscured by biases and simple lack of data. In addition, some questions may actually have no answer, because people are using different meanings for the same word or the question itself is contradictory (how many sides does a square triangle have?)
EDIT:
A lot of people here - myself included - practice or advise testing how accurate your estimates are. There are websites and such dedicated to helping people do this.