You could in principle very easily ignore the dice and eat the chocolate regardless. You need to take it upon yourself to follow through with the scheme and forfeit the chocolate 3 times out of 4. If you start with the understanding that chocolate is a possibility 4 times out of 4 if you followed a more permissive scheme, then you are effectively punishing yourself 3/4 of the time, which I expect would work as negative reinforcement for said task or the reward scheme in general. And it would also require enough willpower, which some people won't have.
If you start with the understanding that chocolate is a possibility (...) then you are effectively punishing yourself 3/4 of the time
This makes sense and feels correct to me.
http://measureofdoubt.com/2011/04/12/pulling-levers-killing-monsters-the-lure-of-unpredictable-rewards/ (how do I put a link like this in a word with blue letters?)
I've read that unpredictable rewards associated with a behavior actually encourage that behavior more effectively than consistent rewards.
The optimal habit-forming figure given in the link above is a 25% chance of reward for each instance of performing the behavior.
My hypothesis then, is that if I want to establish a habit by rewarding myself upon successfully performing a certain task, I should reward myself only 25% of the time if I want to ingrain the habit as forcefully as possible into my unconscious.
Anyone else think so, or have any other research to add?