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Decius comments on Infinite Certainty - Less Wrong
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If the goal here is to make a statement to which one can assign probability 1, how about this: something exists. That would be quite difficult to contradict (albeit it has been done by non-realists).
What evidence convinces you now that something exists? What would the world look like if it were not the case that something existed?
Imagine yourself as a brain in a jar, without the brain and the jar. Would you remain convinced that something existed if confronted with a world that had evidence against that proposition?