Comment on Open Thread August 31 - September 6

Wed, 02 Sep 2015 13:30:57 GMT

what do you think Adams is doing?

What Adams has said he's doing is simulating the future along the mainline prediction--i.e. nothing too weird happens--and under his model, Trump is guaranteed to win. Then he says "well, maybe something weird will happen" and drops that confidence by 2%, instead of a more reasonable 30% (or 50%).

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