evand comments on Actually existing prediction markets? - Less Wrong

8 Post author: Douglas_Knight 02 September 2015 10:24PM

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Comment author: evand 03 September 2015 02:53:36PM 0 points [-]

You can build systems that preserve sum of probabilities = 1. They'll still see bias away from the extremes, because of fees and because of time value of money. But you can do a lot better than PredictIt. (One thing that helps on the fees side is to make fees go down for trades near the extremes; I argued for that in detail on Augur here.