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Viliam comments on Why Don't Rationalists Win? - Less Wrong
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You know, it's hard for me to simultaneously think of someone as winning and not a rationalist, not to mention always correcting the result by 'my definition'. I could say that the confirmation bias is at fault, but really... Shouldn't we just dissolve the questions?:) I mean, suppose I do know a person who has trouble letting sunk causes go, and has probably firmly forgotten about the Bayes theorem, and uses arguments as soldiers on occasion... But she is far more active than me, she keeps trying out new things, seeking out jobs even beyond her experiences etc. Should I consider her rational? I don't know. Brave, yes. Rather smart, yes. Winning, often. But rational?
Winning a lottery? (Generalize it to include genetic lottery etc.)
Many stories I've seen of lottery winners lost the money quickly through bad investments and/or developed major life issues (divorce, drug addiction).
I think there's an element of rubbernecking there. The general feeling of the mob is that lottery = tax on stupidity. We are smart to not play the lottery. Story of a winner challenges general feeling, mob feels dumb for not buying winning ticket. Unmet need exists for story to make mob happy again.
General form of story is that lottery money is evil money. Lottery winners, far from being better than you, dear reader, are actually worse! They get divorced, they squander the money! Lawsuits!!
No one wants to read about the guy who retires and pays off his credit cards. No story there. But there are a lot of lotteries, so there will be an idiot somewhere you can use to reassure your viewers that they are double smart for not being rich.
The entire world is a tax on stupidity.