Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

Lumifer comments on Doomsday Argument Map - Less Wrong

6 Post author: turchin 14 September 2015 03:04PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (32)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Lumifer 14 September 2015 07:34:50PM *  0 points [-]

Before accounting for agricultural conditions you probably should account for the distribution of land masses... But anyway, how is this a "DA-style calculation"?

Comment author: turchin 14 September 2015 07:42:35PM 3 points [-]

DA-style here means that my position is some set is used to estimate total size of the set, assuming that I random observer from this set. DA-style is also means that we ignore other available information about me, Earth etc, but use only my position in the set to get very rough estimate of total size of the set. The study of such DA-style predictions in known domains could help us estimate validity of DA in unknown domains.

Comment author: Lumifer 14 September 2015 09:14:49PM 0 points [-]

my position is some set is used to estimate total size of the set, assuming that I random observer from this set

Isn't this approach better known as "generalising from one example"?

Comment author: turchin 14 September 2015 09:17:52PM 2 points [-]

No, it is evidence, but very vague.