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turchin comments on Doomsday Argument Map - Less Wrong

6 Post author: turchin 14 September 2015 03:04PM

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Comment author: turchin 14 September 2015 11:12:44PM 2 points [-]

Probably, not, as he has a lot of information about the subject. DA is helpful in case if you don't have any other information about the subject. Also DA is statistical argument thereby it could not be disproved by counterexample. It is always possible to construct a situation where it will not work. Like some molecules in the air are not moving, despite the fact that median velocity is very high.

It may be used in such problems as bus waiting problem (variant of Laplace sunrise problem). If last bus was 5 minutes ago, want is the probability that it will come in next 1 millisecond, next 5 minutes? next 1 year?

Comment author: Avo 15 September 2015 06:14:20AM -1 points [-]

At least some DA proponents claim that there should always be a change in the probability estimate, so I am pleased to see that you agree that there are situations where DA conveys no new information.

Comment author: turchin 15 September 2015 08:25:58AM 2 points [-]

The situation would change, if I were Adam, first man in the world, and a priory will be able to start exponential human growth with P= 50 per cent probability (or think so). After finding that I am Adam, I would have to update this probability to lower. The way I update depends of sampling method - SSA or SIA but both result in early doom. SSA says that I am in short world. SSI said that my apriory estimation of universal distribution of short and long civilization may be wrong. It would be especially clear if apriory P would not 50 percent, but say 90 per cent.