VAuroch comments on Probabilities Small Enough To Ignore: An attack on Pascal's Mugging - Less Wrong
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It is? How much energy are you going to need to run detailed sims of 10^100 people?
Point, but not a hard one to get around.
There is a theoretical lower bound on energy per computation, but it's extremely small, and the timescale they'll be run in isn't specified. Also, unless Scott Aaronson's speculative consciousness-requires-quantum-entanglement-decoherence theory of identity is true, there are ways to use reversible computing to get around the lower bounds and achieve theoretically limitless computation as long as you don't need it to output results. Having that be extant adds improbability, but not much on the scale we're talking about.