hairyfigment comments on Probabilities Small Enough To Ignore: An attack on Pascal's Mugging - Less Wrong

20 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 16 September 2015 10:45AM

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Comment author: hairyfigment 17 September 2015 09:47:36AM 0 points [-]

I think I agree that the OP does not follow independence, but everything else here seems wrong.

Actions A and B are identical except that A gives me 2 utils with .5 probability, while B gives me Graham's number with .5 probability. I do B. (Likewise if there are ~Graham's number of alternatives with intermediate payoffs.)

Comment author: entirelyuseless 17 September 2015 02:01:09PM 0 points [-]

I'm not sure how you thought this was relevant to what I said.

What I was saying was this:

Suppose I say that A has utility 5, and B has utility 10. Basically the statement that B has twice the utility A has, has no particular meaning except that if I would like to have A at a probability of 10%, I would equally like to have B at a probability of 5%. If I would take the 10% chance and not the 5% chance, then there is no longer any meaning to saying that B has "double" the utility of A.