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solipsist comments on Probabilities Small Enough To Ignore: An attack on Pascal's Mugging - Less Wrong
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May I recommend Feynman's lectures then? I am not sure what the point is. Aristotle was a smart guy, but his physics intuition was pretty awful. I think we are in a good enough state now that I am comfortable using physical principles to rule things out.
Arguably quantum mechanics is a better example here than relativity. But I think a lot of what makes QM weird isn't about physics but about the underlying probability theory being non-standard (similarly to how complex numbers are kinda weird). So, e.g. Bell violations say there is no hidden variable DAG model underlying QM -- but hidden variable DAG models are defined on classical probabilities, and amplitudes aren't classical probabilities. Our intuitive notion of "hidden variable" is somehow tied to classical probability.
It all has to bottom out somewhere -- what criteria do you use to rule out solutions? I think physics is in better shape today than basically any other empirical discipline.
Do you know, offhand, if Baysian networks have been extended with complex numbers as probabilities, or (reaching here) if you can do belief propagation by passing around qubits instead of bits? I'm not sure what I mean by either of these thing but I'm throwing keywords out there to see if anything sticks.
Yes they have, but there is no single generalization. I am not even sure what conditioning should mean.
Scott A is a better guy to ask.