Lumifer comments on Probabilities Small Enough To Ignore: An attack on Pascal's Mugging - Less Wrong

20 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 16 September 2015 10:45AM

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Comment author: Lumifer 23 September 2015 03:31:48PM 0 points [-]

I don't think you can assign 1/3^^^3 probability to anything. That's an unfathomably small probability.

About as unfathomably small as the number of 3^^^3 people is unfathomably large?

I think you're relying on "but I feel this can't be right!" a bit too much.

Comment author: Houshalter 23 September 2015 07:48:30PM 1 point [-]

I don't see what your point is. Yes that's a small number. It's not a feeling, that's just math. If you are assigning things 1/3^^^3 probability, you are basically saying they are impossible and no amount of evidence could convince you otherwise.

You can do that and be perfectly consistent. If that's your point I don't disagree. You can't argue about priors. We can only agree to disagree, if those are your true priors.

Just remember that reality could always say "WRONG!" and punish you for assigning 0 probability to something. If you don't want to be wrong, don't assign 1/3^^^3 probability to things you aren't 99.9999...% sure absolutely can't happen.