Mirzhan_Irkegulov comments on The Temptation to Bubble - Less Wrong

24 Post author: gressettd 23 September 2015 11:34PM

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Comment author: Mirzhan_Irkegulov 24 September 2015 03:06:49PM 2 points [-]

Your writing is good, much better than mine, even though I came up with the same idea before. Please continue writing.

There is one thing I disliked, the mentioning of “liberals” and “conservatives” as the only 2 possible political positions, 2 “sides”. You already understand the package-deal fallacy, that one who identifies as a “liberal” and supports most stereotypically “liberal” policies, might still not support all of them, or support some of the “conservative” policies.

But there are policies that you can't pigeonhole into “liberal” and “conservative”. Many policies and ideas are not even binary: there are not 2 contradictory positions, but 10 contradictory positions. Therefore even the idea of a 1-dimensional continuum of left-centre-right is fallacious.

It's also important to note that not all English-speaking Internet users are from the US. There are well-educated people who live in countries you don't even know exist. So mentioning US political trends or personalities without brief explanation is an additional obstacle to understanding. If you want your texts to be widely read by non-Americans, you should make them more general, so that they don't require local American intuitions and background knowledge.

Finally, there is a point that is rarely brought up on LW, but is very important. The reason Luke Muehlhauser is so cool, is that he raised attention to the neglected virtue of scholarship, the fact that, in some sense, there is no “royal road to science”. Strictly speaking, this is not true, some roads are definitely more effective than the others. A good textbook or study methods might accelerate your learning tenfold, hundredfold.

But at the end of they day, once you have your rationality, your effective study methods, your time-management system, your Pomodoro, your Bayesian epistemology and what not, the only way you can actually understand something on a deep level is to sit your ass on the chair and read a freaking book. Sometimes more than once, with exercises, whiteboard and discussions.

You can optimize learning and thinking, for sure, but you can't skip the dumb “hard work” part. And this leads us to the fact that we have 24 hours a day. Most people have stupid jobs, little money, kids, commitments, social status to maintain. The little free time they have they can't spend efficiently on self-education, because they are tired after work, they are stressed and anxious and have lots of psychological barriers that make them think “nah, I'm too stupid to ever learn physics on my own”. And I'm not even talking about billions of people living in complete squalor, I'm talking about people with access to the Internet and books.

A middle-aged US conservative has enough time to read one book a month. Not because he's a “stupid redneck”, but because all other time is spent raising kids, fixing his car, going to the job, inviting friends for a meal etc. So when he goes to the bookstore, he sees a nice-seeming book by Ann Coulter. He has no training in political science, so how would he ever know that the book is the waste of time? He has no point of reference, no background knowledge. One might say he buys this book to assuage his tribal evo-psych desires or because he's biased. I say he simply can't make huge inferential jumps that would make him conclude reading Ann Coulter is a waste of time.

You see, saying that someone is biased, or a product of evolution in the ancestral environment, or prone to signaling and status-oriented behavior, and so on, is just a very elaborate way of saying someone is stupid. And stupid is a grave insult. People near-universally hate stupid people, and treat them with either condescension or hostility by default. It's like we constantly trying to prove that their stupidity is their “fault”. You'd think, if somebody is stupid, that is, has not enough knowledge or mental skills to come to a right conclusion, definitely the results of their stupidity are not their fault? But that's not how people think automatically, and it takes conscious effort to rewrite this default attitude towards stupid people.

Suppose the above-mentioned US conservative somehow magically decides to buy Bill Maher's book instead. He read somewhere that it's no harm to sometimes read what your political enemies write, that even in the worst propaganda might be a grain of truth, that it's virtuous to try to learn the position you dislike and evaluate it on your own. Somehow, his cognitive, social, evo-psych forces didn't stop him from buying that book. Would he now be able to support views that are closer to the truth? Most likely not, except if slightly or by epistemic luck.

Some political positions, like gay marriage, might be a “no-brainer”. But open borders is not a “no-brainer”, and so aren't negative income tax, raising minimum wage, military interventions, increasing inflation, decreasing inflation. You need to read books for that, and think with concentration for hours, and consult various sources, and maybe write down equations, and maybe even use statistical methods. Most people literally don't have time for that.

Teaching the dangers of death spirals and how politics can be a mind-killer to everyone would make the world a much better place. But I don't even think a next-door fundamentalist Christian, trained in LW rationality, would necessarily accept evolution. Because accepting evolution is not about rational thinking, it's about actually understanding how it works. Yeah, you can also accept it without understanding, and that's what happens most of the times. I'm pretty sure most /r/atheism subscribers don't actually understand evolution's mechanism and thus aren't justified in their belief.

Comment author: 27chaos 25 September 2015 03:51:11AM 2 points [-]

I appreciate this comment for many reasons, but mostly because it throws into prominence the role of different values underlying comparisons like the top post's.

I wish I had the kind of serene acceptance of other people that you seem to have, but I do not. I am inclined to blame people for not making time to research economic, social, and political policy options, since these things are so important. You're right that it takes time to learn details about which policies are good and which are not, but there are many other factors besides knowledge that are relevant to sustained disagreement. For example, it's not a matter of time investment for someone to admit it when they realize they are wrong, it's essentially just a matter of integrity. Most people lack the humility to do this, however. This is repulsive to me, a mindset that values pretending to be right over actually figuring out how to help others. But this mindset is one I feel that most people possess. I strongly wish I believed otherwise, it's very unpleasant for me to half-despise so many people, but it's what my view of the facts suggests.

Comment author: gressettd 25 September 2015 08:52:14PM *  1 point [-]

How much of these behaviors (lack of humility, intellectual laziness, etc) that repulse you are driven by evolutionary adaptations to living in a social group and maintaining your status and reputation in your tribe? Agreeing with the popular view in your tribe, and agreeing with tribal leaders to display loyalty, probably has some fitness advantages. Have no empirical data for that, but it's worth considering as an alternate view, especially if you "strongly wish you believed otherwise" ... humility and integrity may not get a chance to step up if higher priority instincts are kicking in to produce these effects.

Comment author: gressettd 24 September 2015 06:58:08PM 2 points [-]

It's very good of you to say the writing is good, glad you enjoyed it, and yes will write more here.

Completely agree with you that liberal vs conservative is an overly dualistic and simplistic way to carve up political positions, but for brevity's sake and to keep on point, described it that way.

Assuming everyone on this forum values the idea of testing their knowledge; not to prove or even disprove their ideas, but to update. probabilities. But why isn't this method, even a dumbed-down version of it, held in higher regard for progress than debate? Debate is virtually useless to the general public. We already teach the scientific method, but only as applied to the school science fair, instead of a general method for getting to a clearer view of things.

You're of course completely on the nose about people not having the time and energy to do the actual work on all the issues. So my advice: don't be a moron. Say you have no opinion. Didn't read the holy book (either your own or the enemy's religion)? No opinion. Didn't read the bill? No opinion. Read no articles from climate science journals? No opinion. Etc.

Comment author: VoiceOfRa 25 September 2015 02:11:56AM 1 point [-]

We already teach the scientific method, but only as applied to the school science fair, instead of a general method for getting to a clearer view of things.

Because it's not a good method for getting a clear view of things.

So my advice: don't be a moron. Say you have no opinion. Didn't read the holy book (either your own or the enemy's religion)? No opinion. Didn't read the bill? No opinion. Read no articles from climate science journals? No opinion. Etc.

Except then your at the mercy of, at best, the people who ignore this advise, or at worst, the people who intentionally made things overly complicated in order to screw you.

For example, why can't most people read the bill? Because the bill is extremely unnecessarily long. Why is the bill extremely unnecessarily long? The better for the lobbyists to hide all the ways they're screwing you on behalf of their clients.

Comment author: gjm 25 September 2015 03:38:28PM 2 points [-]

There is nothing in the post you linked to that supports your statement that the scientific method is "not a good method for getting a clear view of things".

(What there is: Eliezer argues for calling things "scientific beliefs" only when they are generalizations endorsed by scientific study, rather than particular statements that follow from those generalizations; and for calling things "science" only when they are publicly known. None of that has any bearing on how well, or how widely, the scientific method is effective in distinguishing truth from error.)

Comment author: TheAncientGeek 28 September 2015 10:01:08AM 1 point [-]

For example, why can't most people read the bill? Because the bill is extremely unnecessarily long. Why is the bill extremely unnecessarily long? he better for the lobbyists to hide all the ways they're screwing you on behalf of their clients.

It looks like society needs some specialists who make a living interpreting these things , political journalists maybe.

Comment author: VoiceOfRa 28 September 2015 10:36:21PM 1 point [-]

Yes, and in particular, I can form my opinion based on what others write about it rather than having to say "no opinion" if I haven't read the bill myself.

Comment author: gressettd 25 September 2015 09:05:28PM 0 points [-]

Don't think Eliezer meant to say that the scientific method isn't awesome for optimizing a truthful view of reality. If he did say that, he's wrong. Is there a specific case you could make on why it's not, because didn't get that from the article you referred to.

Don't understand your comment about having no opinion when you have no data. I'm reading it as 1) many people won't dig for data and have strong opinions anyway and 2) obscurity can be used as a weapon to prevent you from forming an informed opinion. Does that describe your comment accurately?

For 1, not sure what the disadvantage you see here ... okay ignorant opinions are bountiful. So we should join the club or they'll .... what? For 2, if the alternative is to form a strong a opinion without data because someone made it too much work for you to care that much, then they've manipulated you more than if you hold no opinion at all ... what am I missing?

Comment author: VoiceOfRa 25 September 2015 11:17:21PM 1 point [-]

Don't think Eliezer meant to say that the scientific method isn't awesome for optimizing a truthful view of reality.

The scientific method has it's uses, just as the court system has it's uses. They both, however, rely on throwing out certain kinds of evidence. And one can't always afford to ignore said evidence in practice.

For 1, not sure what the disadvantage you see here ... okay ignorant opinions are bountiful. So we should join the club or they'll .... what?

For policy on the basis of their wrong ideas.

For 2, if the alternative is to form a strong a opinion without data because someone made it too much work for you to care that much, then they've manipulated you more than if you hold no opinion at all ... what am I missing?

I didn't say one shouldn't use any data. Simply that one doesn't have to read the bill to form an opinion about it.

Here are some hints:

Didn't read the holy book (either your own or the enemy's religion). =/= having no data about it

Didn't read the bill. =/= having no data about it

Read no articles from climate science journals. =/= having no data about it

Comment author: Good_Burning_Plastic 26 September 2015 10:20:21AM 0 points [-]

Didn't read the bill. =/= having no data about it

No, but what data I do have about it is likely to be filtered.

Comment author: VoiceOfRa 26 September 2015 04:56:41PM 2 points [-]

So? The point of the article is not that one should ignore filtered evidence, but that one should adjust for the filter.