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Lumifer comments on The Temptation to Bubble - Less Wrong
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Are you assuming starting from zero, from tabula rasa? That's not really the usual case. And if not, people, basically, have priors which are often strong priors. It does (and it should) take considerable amount of evidence to overcome them.
If you mean that when interested in a particular question one should google it up instead of trying to derive the whole thing from scratch, then sure. But an example I had in my head looks different:
You acquired a bit of money and decided to invest it. So, let's ask the experts. You look around and there is a Schwab/Fidelity/blah brokerage. You go in and talk to the guy in there who is an expert and clearly knows more than you do. He recommends putting your money into their proprietary Schwab/Fidelity/blah fund. You do the "obviously rational" thing, give him the money, and leave. Is there a problem?
This is basically what I mean. I'm trying to differentiate between what I'll call the normal range of behavior (i.e. does this person seem like a do-it-yourselfer or not relative to other people I know) and the actual range of behavior (what fraction of the productive work done on things they consume does this person do themselves). If you focus just on the normal range, it's easy to argue that one should do-it-themselves as much as possible, without realizing that the absolute level for "as much as possible" is closer to 2% than to 100%.
And if you start looking at things with the consumer mindset, then you start thinking about how to be a savvy consumer instead of how to be a producer, and I think that's a very useful skillset to develop.
Yes--and it looks like the same problem as buying the first car you see for sale, and paying the asking price. (I'll note that, as much of an index fund partisan as I am, I didn't invent those arguments--I read them, they made sense to me, and I started doing it and repeating them).