dlthomas comments on Beautiful Probability - Less Wrong

34 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 January 2008 07:19AM

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Comment author: thomblake 11 October 2011 08:45:21PM 0 points [-]

Amongst other reasons, Monty isn't the experimenter. I'm really not sure in precisely what way Monty Hall is analogous to these experiments.

Comment author: dlthomas 11 October 2011 09:10:03PM 2 points [-]

Monty Hall is analogous in that we are looking at evidence and trying to make conclusions about likelihoods. It is relevant because the likelihoods are different depending on what was in Monty's head in the past, after observing the same physical evidence. Monty is not the experimenter; where does that make a difference? Could one reformulate it so that he was? He would be running two different experiments, surely - but then why isn't that the case for the two researchers?