gRR comments on Beautiful Probability - Less Wrong

34 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 January 2008 07:19AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (109)

Sort By: Old

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: gRR 12 February 2012 03:10:06AM 1 point [-]

The argument that confused me at first was: "Wouldn't the second researcher always be able to produce a >60% result given enough time and resources, no matter what the actual efficacy of the treatment is?"

But this is not true. If the true efficacy is < 60%, then the probability of observing a ">60%" result at least once in a sequence of N experiments does not tend to 1 as N goes to infinity.