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Raelifin comments on Vegetarianism Ideological Turing Test Results - Less Wrong
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As Douglas_Knight points out, it's only 10/12, a probability of ~0.016. In a sample of ~50 we should see about one person at that level of accuracy or inaccuracy, which is exactly what we see. I'm no more inclined to give #14 a medal than I am to call #43 a dunce. See the histogram I stuck on to the end of the post for more intuition about why I see these extreme results as normal.
I absolutely will fess up to exaggerating in that sentence for the sake of dramatic effect. Some judges, such as yourself, were MUCH less wrong. I hope you don't mind me outing you as one of the people who got a positive score, and that's a reflection of you being better calibrated. That said, if you say "I'm 70% confident" four times, and only get it right twice, that's evidence that you were still (slightly) overconfident when you thought "decently able to discern genuine writing from fakery".
Or, of course, just lucky. If you aren't giving #14 a medal, you shouldn't be giving me one either. (Though, as it happens, I have some reason to think my calibration is pretty good.) And yes, I was still slightly overconfident, and my intention in what I wrote above was to make it clear that I recognize that.
I'm #43 and I'll accept my dunce cap. I responded just after I began lurking here. I remember having little confidence in my responses and yet I apparently answered as if I did. I really have no insight into why I answered this way. My cringeworthy results reinforce to me the importance of sticking around and improving my thinking.