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James_Miller comments on Simulations Map: what is the most probable type of the simulation in which we live? - Less Wrong

5 Post author: turchin 11 October 2015 05:10AM

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Comment author: James_Miller 11 October 2015 06:02:42AM *  2 points [-]

Eternal inflation might give us another reason to think that we are not in a simulation. Imagine that the multiverse is finite but contains many universes. New universes are born at a super-exponentially increasing rate. Consequently, there are vastly more universes of age t than age t+1. If you are unsure concerning the age of your universe you should always give a high weight to your universe being as young as possible, consistent with the data you see. So pretend that observers such as us arise in universes of age t, and in universes of age t+1 there are 10^100 simulations of the universe at age t, but there are 10^100000 more universes of age t than of age t+1 so most observers like us across the multiverse are not in simulations.

Comment author: turchin 11 October 2015 06:25:38AM 1 point [-]

I like your idea, but we can't prove it on our level of knowledge. One of the reasons of it is that we can't say what is the "now" moment in casually remote regions of the Universe, and could timeless physics help us here. Also such exponential increase may have its own observation selection effects, its own Doomsday argument, like that we are probably now in the last moment of all this multiverse existence.