AlexMennen comments on Pascal's Mugging, Finite or Unbounded Resources? - Less Wrong
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Still disagree. As I pointed out, it is possible to for a short program to generate outputs with a very large number of complex components.
Given only partial failure of observation or logic (where most of your observations and deductions are still correct), you still have something to go on, so you shouldn't have symmetry there. For everything to cancel so that your 1/3^^^^3-probability hypothesis dominates your decision-making, it would require a remarkably precise symmetry in everything else.
I have also argued against the median utility maximization proposal already, actually.