turchin comments on A Map of Currently Available Life Extension Methods - Less Wrong

11 Post author: turchin 17 October 2015 12:10AM

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Comment author: nyralech 17 October 2015 01:59:40AM 12 points [-]

The example of Rita Montalchni is incredibly interesting (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rita_Levi-Montalcini). She administered a nerve growth factor (NGF) as eye drops and lived for 101 years while her twin sister died when she was 91. (Bearing in mind the average life duration difference of twins is six years, we can conclude that she gained about four years.)

Actually, all we can conclude is that you have managed to find a single anecdote to support your point. (Sidenote: according to the link she died at 103 years of age.)

Comment author: turchin 17 October 2015 08:10:29PM 0 points [-]

Also the statistical difference in 12 years is still strong in this case as Hompertz curve is much steeper in 90th that in 70th.

For example, after 100 a person has the probability to die 50 per cent a year. In this case gaining several years is very unprobable event. For example for 91 years old person to survive until 103 has probability around 1 in 1000.

The statistic for twins is also probably distorted by earlier deaths of most twins (like 65 and 71) - because most people die earlier than Hompertz curve is not so steep.

Comment author: nyralech 17 October 2015 11:30:21PM 1 point [-]

I agree that it is some support, but I do not have any knowledge of the statistical distribution of differences between twins deaths. I would assume that there are enough twins that such a large difference is not terribly unlikely to happen just by chance alone.

However, it's quite clear to me that you are more informed about this than I am, so it would be nice if you could point me toward some resources with stats on this.