gjm comments on The trouble with Bayes (draft) - Less Wrong

10 Post author: snarles 19 October 2015 08:50PM

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Tags: epistemology rationality inference bayesian statistics

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Comment author: gjm 19 October 2015 10:21:35PM 2 points [-]

Beta(1000,2)

Was that meant to be Beta(1000,10)? (With appropriately updated probabilities as a result?)

Comment author: snarles 19 October 2015 10:36:12PM 1 point [-]

Good catch, it should be Beta(991, 11). The prior is uniform = Beta(1,1 ) and the data is (990 successes, 10 fails)

Comment author: gjm 19 October 2015 11:19:04PM 1 point [-]

Yup, sorry, I made two separate mistakes there (misparameterizing the beta distribution by alpha+beta,beta rather than alpha,beta, and the off-by-one error) -- but at least my wrong parameters were less wrong than yours :-).

Comment author: OrphanWilde 21 October 2015 07:11:43PM 0 points [-]

It looks like you didn't replace all the distributions with the update?

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