You're thinking about this in terms of forecasting. This is not forecasting, this is historical studies.
Consider the hard sciences equivalent: you take, say, some geneticists and try to figure out whether their estimates of which genes cause what are any good by asking them questions about quantum physics to "check how they are calibrated".
You're thinking about this in terms of forecasting.
No. Bayesian estimate calibration is most often used in forecasting, but it's effective in any domain which there's uncertainty, including hard sciences. In fact, calibration training is often done with either numerical trivia, using 90% credible intervals, or with true or false questions using a single percentage estimate. I recommend checking out "How to Measure Anything" for a more indepth treatment.
...Consider the hard sciences equivalent: you take, say, some geneticists and try to figur
Cross-posted from my blog here.
One of the greatest successes of mankind over the last few centuries has been the enormous amount of wealth that has been created. Once upon a time virtually everyone lived in grinding poverty; now, thanks to the forces of science, capitalism and total factor productivity, we produce enough to support a much larger population at a much higher standard of living.
EAs being a highly intellectual lot, our preferred form of ritual celebration is charts. The ordained chart for celebrating this triumph of our people is the Declining Share of People Living in Extreme Poverty Chart.
(Source)
However, as a heretic, I think this chart is a mistake. What is so great about reducing the share? We could achieve that by killing all the poor people, but that would not be a good thing! Life is good, and poverty is not death; it is simply better for it to be rich.
As such, I think this is a much better chart. Here we show the world population. Those in extreme poverty are in purple – not red, for their existence is not bad. Those who the wheels of progress have lifted into wealth unbeknownst to our ancestors, on the other hand, are depicted in blue, rising triumphantly.
Long may their rise continue.