it's effective in any domain which there's uncertainty, including hard sciences
Citation needed.
Not all uncertainty is created equal. If uncertainty comes from e.g. measurement limitations, the Bayesian calibration is useless.
Note that science is mostly about creating results that can be replicated by anyone regardless of how well or badly calibrated they are.
Yes, that's essentially how it works
That's how you imagine it to work, since I don't expect anyone to actually be doing this. But let's see, assume we have successfully run the calibration exercises with our group of geneticists. What do you expect them to change in their studies of which genes do what? We can get even more specific, let's say we're talking about one of the twin studies where the author tracked a set of twins, tested them on some phenotype feature X, and is reporting the results that the twins correlate Y% while otherwise similar general population is correlated Z%. What results would better calibration affect?
Citation needed.
That was an overconfident statement, but for more on how Calibration is useful in places other than Forecasting, check out "How to Measure Anything" as mentioned in the last comment.
...But let's see, assume we have successfully run the calibration exercises with our group of geneticists. What do you expect them to change in their studies of which genes do what? We can get even more specific, let's say we're talking about one of the twin studies where the author tracked a set of twins, tested them on some phenotype feature X, and
Cross-posted from my blog here.
One of the greatest successes of mankind over the last few centuries has been the enormous amount of wealth that has been created. Once upon a time virtually everyone lived in grinding poverty; now, thanks to the forces of science, capitalism and total factor productivity, we produce enough to support a much larger population at a much higher standard of living.
EAs being a highly intellectual lot, our preferred form of ritual celebration is charts. The ordained chart for celebrating this triumph of our people is the Declining Share of People Living in Extreme Poverty Chart.
(Source)
However, as a heretic, I think this chart is a mistake. What is so great about reducing the share? We could achieve that by killing all the poor people, but that would not be a good thing! Life is good, and poverty is not death; it is simply better for it to be rich.
As such, I think this is a much better chart. Here we show the world population. Those in extreme poverty are in purple – not red, for their existence is not bad. Those who the wheels of progress have lifted into wealth unbeknownst to our ancestors, on the other hand, are depicted in blue, rising triumphantly.
Long may their rise continue.