"I don't know if you read scientific papers, but they don't "make estimates on how sure they are of certain hypotheses". They present the data and talk about the conclusions and implications that follow from the data presented. The potential hypotheses are evaluated on the basis of data, not on the basis of how well-calibrated does a particular researcher feel.
I'm not really sure how to answer this because I think you misunderstand calibration.
Science moves forward through something called scientific consensus. How does scientific consensus work right now? Well, we just kind of use guesswork. Expert calibration is a more useful way to understand what the scientific consensus actually is.
That's forecasting. Remember, we're not talking about forecasting.
No, it's a decision model. The decision model uses a forecast "How many lives can be saved", but it also uses calibration of known data "Based on the data you have, how sure are you that this particular fact is true".
Science moves forward through something called scientific consensus.
No. This is absolutely false. Science moves forward through being able to figure out better and better how reality works. Consensus is really irrelevant to the process. The ultimate arbiter is reality regardless of what a collection of people with advanced degrees can agree on.
...The decision model uses a forecast "How many lives can be saved", but it also uses calibration of known data "Based on the data you have, how sure are you that this particular fact is true".
Cross-posted from my blog here.
One of the greatest successes of mankind over the last few centuries has been the enormous amount of wealth that has been created. Once upon a time virtually everyone lived in grinding poverty; now, thanks to the forces of science, capitalism and total factor productivity, we produce enough to support a much larger population at a much higher standard of living.
EAs being a highly intellectual lot, our preferred form of ritual celebration is charts. The ordained chart for celebrating this triumph of our people is the Declining Share of People Living in Extreme Poverty Chart.
(Source)
However, as a heretic, I think this chart is a mistake. What is so great about reducing the share? We could achieve that by killing all the poor people, but that would not be a good thing! Life is good, and poverty is not death; it is simply better for it to be rich.
As such, I think this is a much better chart. Here we show the world population. Those in extreme poverty are in purple – not red, for their existence is not bad. Those who the wheels of progress have lifted into wealth unbeknownst to our ancestors, on the other hand, are depicted in blue, rising triumphantly.
Long may their rise continue.