Which theory, for example, would consider the similarities between feedback mechanisms in financial markets and in ecological systems?
Dynamic systems. I am not convinced it gains from being associated with a wider "systems theory".
Of perhaps, like Molière's bourgeois gentilhomme discovering that he had been speaking prose all his life, the message is that "systems thinking" is what I have always been doing?
Of perhaps, like Molière's bourgeois gentilhomme discovering that he had been speaking prose all his life, the message is that "systems thinking" is what I have always been doing?
Might be :-) I think cybernetics / system theory basically dissolved into a set of disciplines or theories, much like natural philosophy did a long time ago or, say, geography did fairly recently.
Below are some notes that I took while trying to understanding what exactly Systems theory is all about.
System
There is no universally agreed upon definition of ‘system’, but in general systems are seen as at least two elements that are interconnected. It is also common for systems to be talked about as if all of the components in the system work together to achieve some overall purpose or goal. The primary goal is often survival. A commonly accepted definition is below (note that the word ‘element’ is often replaced with ‘component’ for generality purposes):
Non-systems are generally considered to be single instances or a set of elements that lack interconnections, although these may be part of a system.
Environment
The environment is often referred to as the context in which the system is found or as its surroundings. Systems are considered closed if they have no interaction with their environment. It is often the case that systems are considered closed for practicality reasons even though they may not technically be absolutely closed, but just have limited interaction with their environment.
Boundary
The boundary is the separation between the system and environment. The actual point at which the system meets its environment is called an 'interface'. It is often the case that the boundary is not sharply defined and that boundaries are conceptual rather than existing in nature.
Interactions (Inputs/Outputs)
Closed systems are those which are considered to be isolated from their environment. This property of 'closedness' is often required in scientific analysis as it makes it possible to be able to calculate future states with accuracy. The problem is that many systems are open, for example, living organisms are open systems that exchange matter with their environment. A living organism requires oxygen, water and food in order to survive. It gains all of this by interacting with its environment. This interaction has two components: input, that which enters the system from the outside and output that which leaves the system for the environment.
Subsystem and supersystem
The environment can itself consist of other systems interacting with their environment. A greater system is referred to as a super system, or suprasystem. A system that contains subsystems is said to have a hierarchy. That is different levels in the system may be different sets of systems. An intuitive idea demonstrating hierarchy, specifically nested hierarchy, is that of Russian nesting dolls. Other types of hierarchies include :
(Booch, et al., 2007)
Hard and soft systems
Systems are commonly differentiated based on whether they are hard or soft. Hard systems are precise, well defined and quantifiable whereas soft systems are not. With soft systems, the system doesn’t really exist and is instead a label or theory about some part of the world and how it operates. The hard and soft difference is really about different approaches in how to view the world systemically. The hard system approach sees the world as systemic and the soft system approach sees the process of inquiry as systemic:
Complexity
Some concepts which are related to and sometimes mistaken for complexity are (Edmonds, 1996, pp. 3-6):
There are many definitions of complexity. Most of them revolve around the idea that the complexity of a phenomenon is a measure of how difficult it is to describe. One example of a decent definition that avoid the problem described above is:
Another common definition that is used is:
The second definition highlights the point that complexity often leads to an inability for a single language or single perspective to describe all the properties of a system. This means that multiple languages and different perspectives are required just to understand a complex system. This has a very important consequence. It means that no single perspective is absolutely correct there are multiple truths and values, although some are more correct than others.
Organisation
Complexity is normally viewed as being either of the type organised or disorganised. Disorganised complexity problems are ones in which the Law of Large Numbers works. This means that even though there may be a multitude of agents all interacting together their stochastic elements average out and so become predictable (on average) with statistics. Said another way, individual variation tends to reduce potential predictability, but the aggregate behaviour, if the individual variations cancel each out, can be predicted. An example would be rolling a die. The exact outcome cannot be known, assuming the die is not loaded, but if you have a large enough sample size you can know that the average result is (3.5). Problems of organised complexity on the other hand are not problems:
Complex Systems
Although there is no formally accepted definition of complexity or complex systems, there are a number of intuitive features that appear in many definitions (Heylighen, 2008, pp. 4-7), (Ladyman, Wienser , & Lamber, 2013)
The below features are also found and will be described in their own sections below:
Feedback
Feedback is a circular causal process in which some portion of a system’s output is returned (fed back) into the system’s input. Feedback is an important mechanism in achieving homeostasis also known as steady state or dynamic equilibrium. An example of a feedback mechanism in humans would be the release of the hormone insulin in response to increased blood sugar levels. Insulin increases the body’s ability to take in and convert glucose. This has an overall effect of restoring the blood sugar levels back to what they originally were.
Positive feedback is when small perturbations (system deviations) reinforce themselves and have an amplifying effect. An example is emotional contagion. If one person starts laughing, then this is likely to make others start laughing as well. Another example is the spread of a disease, where a single infection can eventually turn into a global pandemic. In positive feedback the effects are said to larger than the causes. When it is the other way around (the effects are smaller than the causes), then you have negative feedback. Negative feedback is when perturbations are slowly supressed until the system eventually return to its equilibrium state. Negative feedback has a dampening effect.
Positive feedback can have an effect of amplifying small and random fluctuations into unpredictable and wild swings in the overall system behaviour, which would then be considered chaotic. Negative feedback makes a system more predictable by supressing the effect of such swings and fluctuations. A consequence of this predictably is a loss of controllability. If negative feedback is present, then a system when pushed out of its equilibrium state will undertake some action to return to it. An example in social systems would be social protest when leaders or governments try to implement unwanted changes.
Interactions that involve positive feedback are very sensitive to their initial conditions. An extremely small and often undetectable change in the initial conditions can lead to drastically different outcomes. This is known as: “the butterfly effect”. The phrase refers to the idea that a change as tiny as the flapping or non-flapping of a butterfly’s wings can have a drastic effect on the weather patterns in another location in the world even going so far as leading to a tornado. Please note that the flapping of the wings does not cause the tornado. They are one instead just one part of the initial conditions that caused the tornado. The flapping wing represents a tiny, seemingly insignificant, change in the initial conditions that turns out to be extremely significant due to a cascading i.e. domino effect.
The butterfly effect is actually a concept relating to chaotic systems. It is important to note that if the initial conditions of the chaotic system were unchanged between two simulations to an infinite degree of precision, the outcome of the two will be the same over any period of time. This means that the systems are still deterministic. A similar, but distinct notion in complex systems is the ‘global cascade’ (Watts, 2002). This is basically a network-wide domino effect that occurs in a dynamic network. It has been noted that systems may appear stable for long period of time and be able to withstand many external shocks and then suddenly and apparently for no explicable reasons exhibit a global cascade. For this reason, systems are both robust and fragile. They can withstand many shocks making them robust, but global cascades can by triggered by shocks that are indistinguishable from others which have previously been withstood. Due to the fact that the original perturbations can be undetectable, the outcomes are then in principle unpredictable.
Complex systems tend to exhibit a combination of both positive and negative feedback. This means that the effects from certain changes are amplified and others dampened. This leads to the overall system behaviour being both unpredictable and uncontrollable.
Self-organization
The second law of thermodynamics says that “energy spontaneously tends to flow only from being concentrated in one place to becoming diffused and spread out.” (Lambert, 2015). An illustrating example is the fact that a hot frying pan cools down when it’s taken off the kitchen stove. Its thermal energy ("heat") flows out to the cooler room air. The opposite never happens.
The second law of thermodynamics might at first glance appear to be implying that all systems need to degrade and cannot be sustained, but this is not the case. The second law of thermodynamics was formulated based on a separate class of phenomena (steam engines originally) than living systems. The original class relates to steady state phenomena close to thermodynamic equilibrium (having the same thermodynamic properties, e.g. heat). Living and more complex systems are steady state phenomena far from thermodynamic equilibrium. They are not isolated but depend on a steady flux of energy that is dissipated to maintain a local state of organisation.
In other words, at the macro level there is an apparent reduction in entropy(measure of the spontaneous dispersal of energy), but at the micro level random processes greatly increase entropy. The system exports this entropy to its environment for example when we breathe we excrete carbon dioxide.
The term waste is not really suitable for the products of excretion because they may actually be used as input for other systems. Plants excrete oxygen which we humans require to survive. A better term is negentropy which is the entropy that a living system exports in order to keep its own entropy low. So, in summary living systems delay decay into thermodynamical equilibrium, i.e. death, by feeding upon negentropy in order to compensate for the entropy that they produce while living or to put it even more simply they suck orderliness from their environment.
Autopoiesis
Regenerative cycling (autopoiesis) is another common feature of self-organizing systems.
The reason why more complex systems tend to be nested is that nested complex systems may have a larger capacity to degrade exergy because of the multiple layers of the network reinforcements by feedback than non-nested systems.
Dissipative structures
The view of self-organization that has been covered so far leads nicely into ‘dissipative structures’.
A whirlpool is an example of dissipative structure and it could have been called ‘doubly dissipative ‘because it requires a continuous flow of matter and energy to maintain its form. When the influx of external energy stops or falls below a certain threshold, the whirl pool will degrade. Other examples of dissipative structures include refrigerators, flames and hurricanes.
Attractors
In relation to self-organization, the term attractor will come up frequently. It is a mathematical term which refers to a value or set of values toward which variables in a dynamical system tend to evolve. A dynamical system is a system whose state evolves with time over a state space according to a fixed rule. A state space is the set of value that a process or system can take.
Attractors emerge, or at least will get stronger, when systems are moved out of equilibrium. Exergy is the energy that is available to be used. After the system and surroundings reach equilibrium, the exergy is zero.
One of the most common ways in which systems reach these attractors is through simple and random fluctuations which are then amplified by positive feedback. This process is referred to as: “order from noise”, a special case of the principle of selective variety. In summary, “order from noise” means that random perturbations ("noise") cause the system to explore a variety of states in its state space. This exploration increases the chance that the system will arrive into the basin of a "strong" or "deep" attractor, from which it would then quickly enter the attractor itself.
Multiple equilibria occur when several different local regions of the same phase space are attractors. Minor perturbations can cause the system to shift between different equilibria or attractors, causing abrupt and dramatic changes in the system.
Thresholds
Thresholds mark the borders between different equilibria. This means that crossing crossing thresholds can have dramatic changes in the system. The term 'threshold' is used to broadly define the minimum amount of change that is required before impacts cause bifurcations or are recognized as important or dangerous. Thresholds can also be conditionally dependent. That is, there may be many interdependent thresholds or thresholds that become apparent only after other specific conditions have been met. This along with their dependence on initial conditions, couplings with other system components, and rapid change between multiple equilibria often make thresholds hard to predict accurately.
Emergence
An intuitive understanding of emergence can be gained by looking at a painting painted with the technique of pointillism. When you look at it up close, all you can see is dots, but as you move further back the overall image begins to resolve. Unfortunately emergence, although it can be understood intuitively, is not a well clarified concept (Corning, 2002, pp. 6-8).
The concept of emergence is generally seen in contexts where the two metaphysical claims are discussed (Christen & Franklin, p. 1-2):
One well known argument for why argues entities of the world, which evolved under disruptive conditions, are likely to be organised hierarchically is (Simon, 1960, p.470):
Emergence can be categorized into a few different types (Christen & Franklin, p. 6-7):
Adaption
Adaptation is a relationship between a system and its environment. Systems are often classified as adaptable (able to be modified by an external agent) and/or adaptive (able to change itself).
An example problem (Ashby, 1960, p. 11) demonstrating the concept of adaptive behaviour is that of the cat and fire. The cat’s behaviour in response to the fire is likely to at first be unpredictable and inappropriate. It may paw at it or stalk it like it is a mouse or walk unconcernedly onto it. It is unlikely use the fire as a method to achieve homeostasis in body temperature. That is it may sit far from the fire even when cold. Later, when the cat has had enough relevant experience with the fire it will approach the fire and seat itself in a place where the heat is moderate. If the fire is burning low, it will move nearer. If a hot coal happens to fall out, it will jump away. Its behaviour towards the fire is now considered ‘adaptive’.
Resilience
A nice way of thinking of resilience is as follows:
It is important to note that resilience doesn't mean that the system is static or constant. Resilient system can be and often are very dynamic. Short-term oscillations, fluctuations and long cycles of climax and collapse may be the norm. Systems that are constant over time can be un-resilient. This presents a problem because people often desire that systems be measurable and for variations over time periods to be minimised. Most people are unaware of what actually makes a system resilient as it is often hard to see.
Complex Adaptive Systems
Many natural systems, e.g. brains, immune systems, societies, are complex adaptive systems. Complex adaptive systems display the complexity of complex systems, but they are also able to adapt and evolve with a changing environment. It is often referred to as co-evolution rather than just as adaptation to a single distinct environment. This is because other systems are in the environment.
References