New essay summarizing some of my latest thoughts on AI safety, ~3500 words. I explain why I think that some of the thought experiments that have previously been used to illustrate the dangers of AI are flawed and should be used very cautiously, why I'm less worried about the dangers of AI than I used to be, and what are some of the remaining reasons for why I do continue to be somewhat worried.
Backcover celebrity endorsement: "Thanks, Kaj, for a very nice write-up. It feels good to be discussing actually meaningful issues regarding AI safety. This is a big contrast to discussions I've had in the past with MIRI folks on AI safety, wherein they have generally tried to direct the conversation toward bizarre, pointless irrelevancies like "the values that would be held by a randomly selected mind", or "AIs with superhuman intelligence making retarded judgments" (like tiling the universe with paperclips to make humans happy), and so forth.... Now OTOH, we are actually discussing things of some potential practical meaning ;p ..." -- Ben Goertzel
I don't see that (4) should be necessary; I may be misunderstanding it.
If you apply a change of basis to the inputs to a non-linearity, then I'm sure it will destroy performance. If you apply a change of basis to the outputs, then those outputs will cease to look meaningful, but it won't stop the algorithm from working well. But just because the behavior of the algorithm is robust to applying a particular linear scrambling doesn't mean that the representation is not natural, or that all of the scrambled representations must be just as natural as the one we started with.
Yeah I should be a bit more careful on number 4. The point is that many papers which argue that a given NN is learning "natural" representations do so by looking at what an individual hidden unit responds to (as opposed to looking at the space spanned by the hidden layer as a whole). Any such argument seems dubious to me without further support, since it relies on a sort of delicate symmetry-breaking which can only come from either the training procedure or noise in the data, rather than the model itself. But I agree that if such an argument was accompanied by justification of why the training procedure or data noise or some other factor led to the symmetry being broken in a natural way, then I would potentially be happy.