gwern comments on Rationality Quotes Thread November 2015 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: elharo 02 November 2015 12:30PM

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Comment author: gwern 02 December 2015 08:19:13PM 0 points [-]

but timing isn't one of them.

Hm? What Pisani is pointing out here is that of the 3 major causal patterns that a cross-sectional correlation can reflect, A->B, B->A and A<-C->B, a longitudinal correlation in which observations of A are followed by observations of B, will let you rule out 1 of the 3 patterns (B->A), reverse causation, which leaves either the hypothesized direct causation or confounding. This is much better evidence than just the cross-sectional approach, although I think confounding is much more likely in general so the boost is not as big as the trichotomy makes it sound.

Comment author: dspeyer 27 December 2015 08:28:23AM 1 point [-]

Reverse causation is not ruled out because diagnosis can be delayed.

It seems entirely plausible to me that it takes several months of worsening depression symptoms (during which time sex drive is effected) before a patient sees a psychiatrist.

I suppose it's ruled out if we separate "depression" and "diagnosed with depression" into separate nodes, but that doesn't rule out anything interesting.