Kingreaper comments on The Allais Paradox - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 19 January 2008 03:05AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (133)

Sort By: Old

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: Kingreaper 14 November 2010 12:26:57PM 1 point [-]

Ummm, no. The money pump fails because of the REASON for the preference difference.

The reason is, as some have already stated, that in scenario 1B if you lose you know it's your fault you got nothing. In scenario 2B if you lose, you can rationalise it easily as "Would have lost anyway"

In your money pump scenario, we have a 1/3rd chance of playing 1. If we get to play 1, we know we're playing 1. So your money pump fails, because a standard player would prefer that the switch be on A at all times.