Kingreaper comments on The Allais Paradox - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 19 January 2008 03:05AM

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Comment author: Kingreaper 14 November 2010 12:33:52PM 0 points [-]

Imagine someone who is happy to play the lottery but would refuse to play an alternative version where the ticket merely confers a slight increase on a significant pre-existing probability of winning 'life changing money'. (As I understand it, most/all lottery players would in fact refuse the 'alternative' gamble.)

This is likely because playing the lottery gives you "hope" of a life-changing event. It means that you KNOW there is a possible life-changing event available.

If you already have that knowledge, then paying for the lottery becomes just about the money; which isn't worthwhile. If you don't, paying for the lottery is buying that knowledge, and the knowledge has value to you.