shokwave comments on The Allais Paradox - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 19 January 2008 03:05AM

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Comment author: David_Gerard 07 December 2010 05:59:55PM 2 points [-]

How do I alleviate feeling pleased at myself for having read the statement of the paradox - that people preferred 1A>1B but 2B>2A - and immediately going "WHAT?" and boggling at the screen and pulling confused faces for about thirty seconds, so flabbergasted I had to reread that this choice pattern was common?

(Personally I'm really strongly biased these days toward a bird in the hand and would have chosen 1A and 2A every time. I occasionally do bits of sysadmin for dodgy dot-coms that friends are working for. There are people who offer equity; I take an hourly fee. "No, no, that's fine, I am but humble roadie." This may not always be the best life strategy, but it seems to work for me at present.)

Comment author: shokwave 07 December 2010 06:20:16PM *  1 point [-]

There are people who offer equity; I take an hourly fee.

Penalise expected value of equity because probability is lower than I have been led to believe - an incredibly useful heuristic.

How do I alleviate feeling pleased at myself

In 33/34ths of the worlds where you make choice A in 1, you are mercilessly teased and mocked by your inferiors, a la this, thirty seconds in, for not picking B. Assuming counterfactual outcomes are revealed.

Comment author: David_Gerard 07 December 2010 06:23:28PM 1 point [-]

I'll just have to cry myself to sleep on a big bed made of $24,000!