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David_Gerard comments on The Allais Paradox - Less Wrong
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Penalise expected value of equity because probability is lower than I have been led to believe - an incredibly useful heuristic.
In 33/34ths of the worlds where you make choice A in 1, you are mercilessly teased and mocked by your inferiors, a la this, thirty seconds in, for not picking B. Assuming counterfactual outcomes are revealed.
I'll just have to cry myself to sleep on a big bed made of $24,000!