wedrifid comments on The Allais Paradox - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 19 January 2008 03:05AM

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Comment author: mendel 26 May 2011 03:15:27PM 0 points [-]

The problem as stated is hypothetical: there is next to no context, and it is assumed that the utility scales with the monetary reward. Once you confront real people with this offer, the context expands, and the analysis of the hypothetical situation falls short of being an adequate representation of reality, not necessarily because of a fault of the real people.

Many real people use a strategy of "don't gamble with money you cannot afford to lose"; this is overall a pretty successful strategy (and if I was looking to make some money, my mark would be the person who likes to take risks - just make him subsequently better offers until he eventually loses, and if he doesn't, hit him over the head, take the now substantial amount of money and run). To abandon this strategy just because in this one case it looks as if it is somewhat less profitable might not be effective in the long run. (In other circumstances, people on this site talk about self-modification to counter some expected situations as one-boxing vs. dual-boxing; can we consider this strategy such a self-modification?)

Another useful real-life strategy is, "stay away from stuff you don't understand" - $24,000 free and clear is easier to grasp than the other offer, so that strategy favors 1A as well, and doesn't apply to 2A vs. 2B because they're equally hard to understand. The framing of offer two also suggests that the two offers might be compared by multiplying percentage and values, while offer 1 has no such suggestion in branch 1A.

We're looking at a hypothetical situation, analysed for an ideal agent with no past and no future - I'm not surprised the real world is more complex than that.

Comment author: wedrifid 26 May 2011 04:11:10PM 0 points [-]

The problem is not with the hypothetical. It is with the intuition. Intuitions which really do prompt bad decisions in the real life circumstances along these lines.

Comment author: mendel 27 May 2011 02:11:40AM 0 points [-]

You seem to have examples in mind?

Comment author: Pavitra 27 May 2011 02:22:24AM 1 point [-]

The lottery comes immediately to mind. You can't be absolutely sure that you'll lose.