Nick_Tarleton comments on The Allais Paradox - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 19 January 2008 03:05AM

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Comment author: Nick_Tarleton 19 January 2008 03:45:46AM 12 points [-]

If I knew the offer wouldn't be repeated, I might take 1A because I'd really rather not have to explain to people how I lost $24,000 on a gamble.

Comment author: faul_sname 10 December 2011 07:32:20AM 2 points [-]

This was my thought exactly. If I was given the option to keep the rest private if I lost, 1A would be a distinctly preferable choice. If I had a 1/34 chance of having to explain how I "lost" $24,000 vs an average loss of $2,200, I might well take choice 1B. (at a later time in my life, when I could afford to lose $2,200, and had significant financial risk from being perceived ask a risk-taker with money).

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 16 December 2014 08:46:12AM 1 point [-]

I think these kinds of 'side channel' loss information are what make your intuition value 1A > 1B. In a way the implicit assumptions in the offer are what cause the trouble. Naive subjects are naive only to pure math not to real life.