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HungryHobo comments on LINK: An example of the Pink Flamingo, the obvious-yet-overlooked cousin of the Black Swan - Less Wrong
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If people want to lock in their predictions they can do so on Prediction Book here.
Could you specify whether you want answers as percentage probability, probabilities, odds, or expected number of launches? My answer was intended as a percentage
Yeah, I was fortunate enough to enter a percent sign after my estimate which resulted in an explicit warning, but an open-ended text box is not a great way to structure this poll.
I just used the standard less-wrong probability poll.
http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Comment_formatting#Probability_Poll
edited the comment to include the description.
Ugh, I screwed up the mean by entering "1" as a probability where I meant 1%. Now I know why Yvain has all those funny "are you reading the directions?" questions on his LW surveys.
I failed to notice the "the" and entered my estimate for the probability of nuclear weapons being used in some state conflict, not necessarily between India and Pakistan.
Would't it be more accurate to use a geometric mean here, instead of an arithmic one?
An arithmic mean really obscures low predictions.
I count deployments for power-demonstration like in the cold war too (it is more difficult what counts as a conflict though)..