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HungryHobo comments on LINK: An example of the Pink Flamingo, the obvious-yet-overlooked cousin of the Black Swan - Less Wrong
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Could you specify whether you want answers as percentage probability, probabilities, odds, or expected number of launches? My answer was intended as a percentage
I just used the standard less-wrong probability poll.
http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Comment_formatting#Probability_Poll
edited the comment to include the description.