So, this is exactly the sort of thing prediction markets should do well at, right? People without structural incentives to ignore a problem can make accurate predictions and make money. People who care about it can point to the market prices when making their point.
In the black swan case, I think prediction markets will do only somewhat better than alternatives, but here they should do vastly better. Right?
India vs. Pakistan: the nuclear option is dangerously close, and nobody seems to want to prevent it
http://qz.com/541502/a-nuclear-war-between-india-and-pakistan-is-a-very-real-possibility/