Jiro comments on Updating on hypotheticals - Less Wrong

4 Post author: casebash 06 November 2015 11:49AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (21)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: Jiro 06 November 2015 03:27:30PM 0 points [-]

This is another case of Goodhart's Law. If you update your priors based on being asked about A->B, people can take advantage of that fact, which changes whether it is a good idea to update your prior on being asked about A->B.

Comment author: casebash 06 November 2015 03:36:56PM *  1 point [-]

That wasn't quite the argument. It was that you should update when asked about A->B if it looked like there prima facie appeared a solid argument for it, even if you were sure it had a flaw somewhere. So it was never automatic.