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gwern comments on Open thread, Nov. 09 - Nov. 15, 2015 - Less Wrong
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You mean, would I be willing to take the negative on a bet that Satoshi is any of Szabo/Finney/Dai/McCaleb/.../O'Mahony at 3:1 odds? Hm... Yes, I would be willing to do that bet. (I know they sum up to more than that, but the odds aren't my true odds but upper bounds, otherwise I wouldn't make any money off offering the bets!)